Science in a changing world & the Badia effect
I have recently written a short letter on science and global change for Frontiers in Ecology and Environment [1]. The letter is available here: doi | pdf, and below are some extracts.
Predictions regarding climate change in response to anthropogenic factors, such as atmospheric greenhouse-gas emissions, were initially made long ago (e.g., 1938; 1972; 1975) and have been continually refined through successive studies and reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Presented in a plethora of international conferences, these predictions were reasonably close to current observations. However, humanity has largely disregarded these predictions, and as a result, science has not fully served one of its purposes. Thus, the current widespread occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and intense wildfires should come as no surprise—in fact, it can be argued that these are outcomes that humanity has collectively chosen …
Ecologists continue to monitor the changes (for example, scientists as “insectometers”). In so doing, we certainly learn about how the biosphere and biodiversity are functioning, but we are witnessing a vanishing world that has—up to now—accommodated humanity quite well. This scenario is reminiscent of the case of Leoncio Badia (the undertaker of Paterna, Valencia, Spain, between 1939 and 1945) who witnessed the brutal reality of the executions of his colleagues by the Franco dictatorship and secretly buried the bodies with care, meticulously recording all details and labeling them so they could be recognized in the future (which indeed has happened). Similarly, scientists today are witnessing the natural world disappear and are quietly and carefully documenting the details for the benefit of future generations, with the feeling that this process is unstoppable given its strength (the Badia effect). This is an odd, and also uncomfortable, sensation for those interested in biodiversity and natural history. Humans may develop technologies to facilitate their continuous adaptation to new climates, but biodiversity is likely to be left behind …
Reference
[1] Pausas JG 2024. Science in a changing world. Front. Ecol. Environ. 22(7): e2797. [doi | pdf]