134 years of climate warming effects
Most research on the effect of global warming on plants and animals refers to a few decades. The lack of long-term ecological data limits our ability to fully understand the real effects of climate change. This likely drives a shifting baseline syndrome in global change research [1]. However, there is a long-term dataset on the peak flowering of the Japanese cherry tree (Prunus jamasakura) in Kyoto from 812 to 2024 that can help to understand when climate warming started to affect plants. The analysis [2] suggests that the peak of flowering started to advance around 1890 in response to warming springs. That is, global warming has been affecting this species for 134 years, and this species is unlikely to be the most susceptible to warming. If the Japanese cherry has been affected by climate warming for c. 134 yr, many other species of plants and animals may have been similarly affected. In other words, climate change may be impacting our biosphere more than we realize.
References
[1] Pausas JG 2024. Science in a changing world. Front. Ecol. Environ. 22: e2797. [doi | pdf]
[2] Pausas JG 2025. The onset of phenological plant response to climate warming. New Phytol. [doi | pdf]